Friday, November 13, 2009

Ralcorp's stumble provides an attractive entry point (RAH)

This is a stock I've watched for a while, but never felt that the upside warranted purchase.

Due to weaker-than expected fourth quarter earnings, Ralcorp (RAH) is on sale. The stock is off 16% from recent highs and has underperformed the S&P500 by a full 20% in the last two months.

Ralcorp is a leader in the rapidly expanding "store-brand" category, exemplified below with a Safeway brand example:


Recent results missed expectations, and management didn't have a good excuse. However, as they digest the Post Foods acquisition, I'm confident that we will see some upside operating leverage as they cut costs and integrate the new division. After the stock drop, I finally like where the stock is now. Its 11% Free Cash Flow Yield is far too high. With a more appropriate 8% yield, the stock would trade in the high 70's.



Copyright 2009 AlphaNinja

CVS-Caremark CEO steps up, buys stock (CVS)

CVS-Caremark (CVS) shares have been under siege as of late, and the CEO put his money where his mouth is, buying 17,000 shares over the last few days.


About $11billion in shareholder value has been wiped out since the company announced some startlingly bad news for its PBM (Pharmacy Benefit Management) business - the Caremark segment that it purchased for $21billion in 2006. They announced lost business with the state of New Jersey, the state of Ohio, as well as losses with medicare.

As the shares have dropped from $38 to $30, many are flagging them as undervalued. Earnings estimates for this year and next have dropped to the 2.60-2.80 per share range, valuing the company at just over 10times earnings. Worries about the company's ability to manage its PBM business are totally warranted, but as UBS pointed out the other day, the market is valuing this segment as if it is un-fixable. Could be the case, but it allows for more upside than downside in the shares.


Intraday action (MCD)

Stocks up well today. The DJIA is +97points today. Weaker-than-expected consumer confidence data is not slowing stocks down today.

Leading the Dow is McDonald's (MCD), +2.5% after yesterday's investor day presentations. Goldman is out with positive comments on the firm, citing a healthy balance sheet that will enable them to invest in the business and take market share. McDonald's' own "Plan to Win" strategy involves opening 1,000 new restaurants and "re-imaging" 2,300. Goldman estimates the re-imaging could increase same-store-sales by 7% alone. McDonald's notes that their goal for incremental return on invested capital is in the high teens - a juicy number. As for what to do with excess cash, I like that it's a mix of buybacks and dividends, to please both sides of that argument:

"As we accelerate our better, not just bigger strategy to the next level, I'm confident we will continue to grow free cash flow in the future. We intend to return all of this cash to shareholders over the long term via dividends and share repurchases. Through October 2009, we have returned $4.3 billion to shareholders, bringing total cash returned to $15.8 billion under our existing three-year $15 billion to $17 billion target."


Thursday, November 12, 2009

Lime Energy shares down after hours on weak results (LIME)

I wrote back in September about Lime Energy(LIME):



The company reported third quarter results this afternoon that were quite disappointing. While revenue came in almost in line with expectations of $21.48million, the loss of 26cents per share was way below the expectation for a loss of 9cents, largely due to much weaker gross margins:


In the release, LIME takes down guidance for the full year, as they're having trouble with their "ability to convert backlog into contracted revenue." In layman's terms, they're finding it tougher to make money. And even when they do win business, their slipping gross margin indicates that the pricing is very very competitive.

"We currently have the largest and most diversified backlog in our history. However, in the immediate term, the current business environment and uncertainty about the stimulus bill are impacting our ability to convert backlog into contracted revenue. ...On the public side, the release of certain contracts has been delayed while public entities wait to see if they can incorporate stimulus funds into their projects. ...We are therefore reducing our annual revenue guidance for 2009 to between $71 million and $73 million with an Adjusted EBITDA* loss of $5 million to $5.5 million. While the delays in being awarded these contracts will impact our 2009 revenue, we believe in combination with our recently awarded contracts from National Grid, NYPA and the Army Corp of Engineers, they will contribute to improved results during the first half of 2010 and are confident of achieving sustained growth during full year 2010."

Actual cash burned of about $700k was much less than the net income loss, and with $24million in cash left over from the capital raise it doesn't look as if they'll run out of money soon. But the reduction in guidance, coupled with no profits in the next year or so, mean this stock will head south. Right now it's off a dollar in late trading.

Copyright 2009 AlphaNinja

GREAT Interview

Charles Ortel of Newport Value Partners.

He's not partisan, or too animated about his views. He simply lays out what our structural problems are.

Yeah the title looks awful - but the interview is very constructive.


Any excuse....(PLA, ICON)



...To write about smut.

KIDDING. There actually is a reason to talk about Playboy (PLA) today.

Playboy (PLA) shares are up 26% on serious volume, trading about 1.6million shares not even halfway through the day. Rumors are flying that the company may sell itself to Iconix Brands (ICON).

In the most recent quarter, Playboy demonstrated much improved operating performance in all three segments, at least from a margin perspective:


But the actual magazine results are HORRIBLE -->>3rd quarter revenue for the domestic magazine were down 44%, a huge "downside acceleration" compared to the 9month period drop of 22%.

Iconix is usually quite savvy about picking up great brands from motivated sellers (recently, they took Ecko off the hands of its idiot founder whose profligate spending led him towards insolvency). But the market is voting with its feet today, and they're not of the opinion that there's much value left for a purchaser of Playboy. ICON shares are off 4.5%.
Copyright 2009 AlphaNinja

Lear completes textbook assault on shareholders (LEA)


Lear is back folks! Well almost back. They're about to re-emerge from bankruptcy, after wiping out holders of the previous class of common stock. Barclays is out this morning upgrading what I'll assume are the "new" shares. They're probably making a good call -->>now that management owns enough of the new shares to actually care about the equity holders in this new "structure."

I put this info out there not because I enjoy ranting about inept management, but rather as a warning to people who assume common stock ownership is (1) as safe as you think it is, and (2) that management is on your side all the time.

Here's a presentation Lear gave back in April. I love the gem in there, "The Company recognizes that it needs to address its debt structure."





For those who've not followed the story, Lear was hit with the perfect storm of high debt, a crumbling auto industry, and a high fixed cost structure. Earlier this year it became apparent they would need to take drastic actions in order to fulfil debt maturities and plug the holes in their cash-losing operations.

Writing about it back then, I spoke to the company and asked if they might consider some "SYA financing," like Alcoa had done. By that I mean "save your a$$" sales of common stock. Yes, it's at low prices and would dilute the hell out of existing shareholders, but at least said shareholders - THE OWNERS OF THE COMPANY -would live another day.

When I put this question to Lear in a call back in May, the answers to my questions were not very comforting:

AlphaNinja - C'mon Lear, respect the shareholders. Put a major turnaround plan together, and sell some common stock. With your stock trading at 1.42, the market sees little chance for a turnaround. With additional cash raised from a stock offering, the market may increase your odds of a turnaround, and bring the stock up into the high single digits.

I just got off the phone with Lear's investor relations. After suggesting that the company take actions similar to what Alcoa did, the response was "not at this stock price." Fair enough argument, no one likes to sell low and buy high. So when I ask about how shareholder-friendly the management plans to be in a potential turnaround/restructuring, the reply was (approximately) "the management and board's first responsibility is to the shareholder. But when we get in a potentially bad situation, our lawyers tell us that we have to take steps to protect the whole enterprise value, including debt holders and employees."

Now this is what's frustrating -when does the board and management decide that the line has been crossed, and that they now have to let shareholders get stiffed in order to protect other stakeholders. It is a very worrisome scenario to me - how can one feel comfortable investing money in common stock when their interest in tough times is subject to board and company management, who might prefer to hang onto their jobs and give debt holders control of the company, instead of taking drastic actions(liquidation) that would preserve/salvage shareholder value?

They did exactly as I suggested they would, a veritable waltz into bankruptcy. While I never was excited about the potential job losses in a liquidation, I was enraged by this company's total lack of concern for the common stockholder. Their actions bordered on criminal.

Yesterday the company put out a slideshow highlighting operating metrics (which I don't even care about at this point), and the "plan of reorganization." They lay it out themselves, that the management that destroyed billions in shareholder value, remains:


BUT WAIT! Not only has the management remained, but they get 1.3million new RSU's, or restricted stock units, to participate in the upside inherent in this new, leaner Lear:


And finally, with an amazing amount of unintentional comedy, they call themselves the most "talented" management in the industry. First off, this industry (at least lately) certainly isn't known for management excellence, so I'm not sure what kinda bar they're setting. More importantly, you're DAMN right they're motivated! They destroyed the previous common stock, cozied up to debt holders, and now have lucrative stock incentive to "motivate" themselves. Too bad they weren't motivated before.


Copyright 2009 AlphaNinja